Want to understand the current state of AI? Check out these charts.
If you’re following AI news, you’re probably getting whiplash. AI is a gold rush. AI is a bubble. AI is taking your job. AI can’t even read a clock. The 2026 AI Index from Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, AI’s annual report card, comes out today and cuts through some of that noise.
Despite predictions that AI development may hit a wall, the report says that the top models just keep getting better. People are adopting AI faster than they picked up the personal computer or the internet. AI companies are generating revenue faster than companies in any previous technology boom, but they’re also spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers and chips. The benchmarks designed to measure AI, the policies meant to govern it, and the job market are struggling to keep up. AI is sprinting, and the rest of us are trying to find our shoes.
All that speed comes at a cost. AI data centers around the world can now draw 29.6 gigawatts of power, enough to run the entire state of New York at peak demand. Annual water use from running OpenAI’s GPT-4o alone may exceed the drinking water needs of 12 million people. At the same time, the supply chain for chips is alarmingly fragile. The US hosts most of the world’s AI data centers, and one company in Taiwan, TSMC, fabricates almost every leading AI chip.
The data reveals a technology evolving faster than we can manage. Here’s a look at some of the key points from this year’s report.
The US and China are nearly tied
In a long, heated race with immense geopolitical stakes, the US and China are almost neck and neck on AI model performance, according to Arena, a community-driven ranking platform that allows users to compare the outputs of large language models on identical prompts. In early 2023, OpenAI had a lead with ChatGPT, but this gap narrowed in 2024 as Google and Anthropic released their own models. In February 2025, R1, an AI model built by the Chinese lab DeepSeek, briefly matched the top US model, ChatGPT. As of March 2026, Anthropic leads, trailed closely by xAI, Google, and OpenAI. Chinese models like DeepSeek and Alibaba lag only modestly. With the best AI models separated in the rankings by razor-thin margins, they’re now competing on cost, reliability, and real-world usefulness.

The index notes that the US and China have different AI advantages. While the US has more powerful AI models, more capital, and an estimated 5,427 data centers (more than 10 times as many as any other country), China leads in AI research publications, patents, and robotics.
As competition intensifies, companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google no longer disclose their training code, parameter counts, or data-set sizes. “We don’t know a lot of things about predicting model behaviors,” says Yolanda Gil, a computer scientist at the University of Southern California who coauthored the report. This lack of transparency makes it difficult for independent researchers to study how to make AI models safer, she says.
AI models are advancing super fast
Despite predictions that development will plateau, AI models keep getting better and better. By some measures, they now meet or exceed the performance of human experts on tests that aim to measure PhD-level science, math, and language understanding. SWE-bench Verified, a software engineering benchmark for AI models, saw top scores jump from around 60% in 2024 to almost 100% in 2025. In 2025, an AI system produced a weather forecast on its own.
“I am stunned that this technology continues to improve, and it’s just not plateauing in any way,” says Gil.

However, AI still struggles in plenty of other areas. Because the models learn by processing enormous amounts of text and images rather than by experiencing the physical world, AI exhibits “jagged intelligence.” Robots are still in their early days and succeed in only 12% of household tasks. Self-driving cars are farther along: Waymos are now roaming across five US cities, and Baidu’s Apollo Go vehicles are shuttling riders around in China. AI is also expanding into professional domains like law and finance, but no model dominates the field yet.
But the way we test AI is broken
These reports of progress should be taken with a grain of salt. The benchmarks designed to track AI progress are struggling to keep up as models quickly blow past their ceilings, the Stanford report says. Some are poorly constructed—a popular benchmark that tests a model’s math abilities has a 42% error rate. Others can be gamed: when models are trained on benchmark test data, for example, they can learn to score well without getting smarter.
AI companies are also sharing less about how their models are trained, and independent testing sometimes tells a different story from what they report. “A lot of companies are not releasing how their models do in certain benchmarks, particularly the responsible-AI benchmarks,” says Gil. “The absence of how your model is doing on a benchmark maybe says something.”
AI is starting to affect jobs
Within three years of going mainstream, AI is now used by more than half of people around the world, a rate of adoption faster than the personal computer or the internet. An estimated 88% of organizations now use AI, and four in five university students use it.
It’s early days for deployment, and AI’s impact on jobs is hard to measure. Still, some studies suggest AI is beginning to affect young workers in certain professions. According to a 2025 study by economists at Stanford, employment for software developers aged 22 to 25 has fallen nearly 20% since 2022. The decline might not be pinned on AI alone, as broader macroeconomic conditions could be to blame, but AI appears to be playing a part.

Employers say that hiring may continue to tighten. According to a 2025 survey conducted by McKinsey & Company, a third of organizations expect AI to shrink their workforce in the coming year, particularly in service and supply chain operations and software engineering. AI is boosting productivity by 14% in customer service and 26% in software development, according to research cited by the index, but such gains are not seen in tasks requiring more judgment. Overall, it’s still too early to understand the bigger economic impact of AI.
People have complicated feelings about AI
Around the world, people feel both optimistic and anxious about AI: 59% of people think that it will provide more benefits than drawbacks, while 52% say that it makes them nervous, according to an Ipsos survey cited in the index.
Notably, experts and the public see the future of AI very differently, according to a Pew survey. The biggest gap is around the future of work: While 73% of experts think that AI will have a positive impact on how people do their jobs, only 23% of the American public thinks so. Experts are also more optimistic than the public about AI’s impact on education and medical care, but they agree that AI will hurt elections and personal relationships.

Among all countries surveyed, Americans trust their government least to regulate AI appropriately, according to another Ipsos survey. More Americans worry federal AI regulation won’t go far enough than worry it will go too far.
Governments are struggling to regulate AI
Governments around the world are struggling to regulate AI, but there were some minor successes last year. The EU AI Act’s first prohibitions, which ban the use of AI in predictive policing and emotion recognition, took effect. Japan, South Korea, and Italy also passed national AI laws. Meanwhile, the US federal government moved toward deregulation, with President Trump issuing an executive order seeking to handcuff states from regulating AI.
Despite this federal action, state legislatures in the US passed a record 150 AI-related bills. California enacted landmark legislation, including SB 53, which mandates safety disclosures and whistleblower protections for developers of AI models. New York passed the RAISE Act, requiring AI companies to publish safety protocols and report critical safety incidents.

But for all the legislative activity, Gil says, regulation is running behind the technology because we don’t really understand how it works. “Governments are cautious to regulate AI because … we don’t understand many things very well,” she says. “We don’t have a good handle on those systems.”
MHRA secures £3.6m to expand AI regulatory sandbox
The Download: how humans make decisions, and Moderna’s “vaccine” word games
This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.
You have no choice in reading this article—maybe
How do humans make decisions? The question has been on Uri Maoz’s mind since he read an article in his early twenties suggesting that… maybe they didn’t.
Had he even had a choice about whether to read that article in the first place? How would he ever know if he was truly responsible for making any decisions? “After that, there was no turning back,” says Maoz, now a professor of computational neuroscience at Chapman University.
Today, Maoz is a central figure in efforts to understand how desires and beliefs turn into actions. He’s also uncovered new wrinkles in the debate. Read the full story on his discoveries.
—Sarah Scoles
This article is from the next issue of our print magazine, packed with stories all about nature. Subscribe now to read the full thing when it lands on Wednesday, April 22.
What’s in a name? Moderna’s “vaccine” vs. “therapy” dilemma
Moderna, the covid-19 shot maker, is using its mRNA technology to destroy tumors through a very, very promising technique known as a cancer vacc—
“It’s not a vaccine,” a spokesperson for Merck said before the V-word could be uttered. “It’s an individualized neoantigen therapy.”
Oh, but it is a vaccine, and it looks like a possible breakthrough. But it’s been rebranded to avoid vaccine fearmongering—and not everyone is happy about the word game. Read the full story.
—Antonio Regalado
This article is from The Checkup, our weekly newsletter covering the latest in biotech. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Thursday.
The must reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.
1 Sam Altman’s home has been attacked twice in two days
A driver reportedly fired a gun at his property on Sunday. (SF Standard)
+ A Molotov cocktail was thrown at his home on Friday. (NBC News)
+ The suspect wrote essays warning AI would end humanity. (SF Chronicle)
+ The attacks expose growing divides in opinion on AI. (Axios)
2 AI weapons are ushering in a new kind of arms race
Countries are racing to deploy AI in military systems. (NYT $)
+ The Pentagon wants AI firms to train on classified data. (MIT Technology Review)
+ Where OpenAI’s technology could show up in Iran. (MIT Technology Review)
3 Artemis II was a success
Astronauts did an array of experiments that will be crucial to the future of both the program itself and deep-space missions. (Guardian)
+ But next steps for the Artemis missions are uncertain. (Ars Technica)
4 OpenAI and Elon Musk are heading toward a massive courtroom clash
The company has accused Musk of a “legal ambush.” (Engadget)
+ He’s lost a streak of cases ahead of the showdown. (FT $)
5 AI job fears in China are fueling a viral “ability harvester” project
It claims to turn human skills into AI tools. (SCMP)
+ Hustlers are cashing in on China’s OpenClaw AI craze. (MIT Technology Review)
6 Governments are hiding information about the Iran war online
Through restrictions on internet access and satellite imagery. (NPR)
7 Apple is testing four smart glasses that could rival Meta Ray-Bans
They’re part of a broader wearables strategy. (Bloomberg $)
8 Meta is building an AI version of Mark Zuckerberg to interact with staff
It’s being trained on his mannerisms, voice, and statements. (FT $)
9 Anthropic is asking Christian leaders for guidance
It’s seeing advice on building moral machines. (WP $)
+ AI agents have spread their own religions. (MIT Technology Review)
10 A dancer with MND is performing again through an avatar
Her brainwaves powered the digital dancer. (BBC)
Quote of the day
“Earth was this lifeboat hanging in the universe.”
—Artemis II astronaut Christina Koch describes her view of Earth from space, the Guardian reports.
One more thing
How AI and Wikipedia have sent vulnerable languages into a doom spiral
When Kenneth Wehr started managing the Greenlandic-language version of Wikipedia, he discovered that almost every article had been written by people who didn’t speak the language.
A growing number of them had been copy-pasted into Wikipedia from machine translators—and were riddled with elementary mistakes. This is beginning to cause a wicked problem.
AI systems, from Google Translate to ChatGPT, learn new languages by scraping text from Wikipedia. This could push the most vulnerable languages on Earth toward the precipice.
Read the full story on what happens when AI gets trained on junk pages.
—Jacob Judah
We can still have nice things
A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line.)
+ Hungary’s next health minister can throw some serious shapes.
+ Here’s a welcome route to an AI-free Google search.
+ Movievia eschews endless scrolling to find the right film for your needs
+ A photography trick has turned a giant glacier into a tiny, living diorama.

