Radically different
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) won the approval it sought when the FDA authorized the company’s oral obesity drug Foundayo
(orforglipron), but the pharma giant’s post-approval stock bounce was short-lived.
Lilly shares rose 4% from $919.77 to $954.52 on the day of the announcement. But the momentum reversed into a 2% loss to $935.58 on Thursday, and for one important reason beyond simply the overall market decline triggered by investors losing confidence in a speedy end to the Iran war.
Investors (as reflected in analysts’ mixed observations) appeared divided on how quickly Lilly can generate sales this year for Foundayo, a small molecule glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist. That division results from the competition shaping up on the drug’s price with obesity arch-rival Novo Nordisk (shares traded on Nasdaq Copenhagen as NOVO-B; ADRs traded on NYSE as NVO).
Novo Nordisk got a jump on Lilly in the oral obesity drug front in December when the Danish biotech giant won FDA approval for oral Wegovy® (semaglutide), a once-daily 25 mg tablet indicated for chronic weight management. Analysts consider oral Wegovy sales to have started strong, with total prescriptions reaching 577,000 and 52,000 filled during the week ending March 20.
Lilly is expected to make Foundayo available directly to patients through its LillyDirect direct-to-consumer services and support platform starting Monday. There, a starting dose of 0.8 mg is being priced at $149/month, rising to $199/month for 2.5 mg, $299/month for the 5.5 mg and 9 mg doses, and up to $349/month for the highest doses of 14.5 mg and 17.2 mg. However, high-dose patients will automatically receive the $299/month price on their first purchases and keep it if they refill their prescription within 45 days of their previous prescription.
Patients paying through commercial insurance plans will be eligible for discounts that reduce Foundayo’s out-of-pocket cost to patients for 1-, 2-, or 3-month prescription fills to $5 a month.
“A positive surprise is that the approval was for a tablet formulation, which is less expensive to manufacture” than the capsule versions studied by Lilly during clinical trials, David Risinger, a senior managing director and senior research analyst covering diversified biopharmaceuticals at Leerink Partners, shared in a research note.
Lilly told Risinger that it conducted a bioequivalence study comparing capsules to tablets, which, according to the company, can be manufactured more efficiently than capsules and use less active pharmaceutical ingredient. The high dose studied in Lilly’s Phase III trials of orforglipron, 36 mg, corresponds to the highest capsule dose of 17.2 mg.
Lilly has sought to price its oral obesity drug competitively with Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy, which starts at $149/month for the lowest dose of 1.5 mg, then rises to $199/month for the 4 mg dose, with new patients paying $149/month through August 31. Prices rise to $299/month for 9 mg and 25 mg doses.
However, patients who sign up for a 12-month subscription to oral Wegovy through Novo Nordisk’s telemedicine partner-providers enjoy a $50 discount that brings their monthly cost down to $249. And commercial insurance patients who agree to local pharmacy pickup with a savings offer can pay as little as $25/month, subject to a maximum savings of $100/month.
The price competition explains why buyers of securities for themselves or clients—the “buy side” in Wall Street jargon—have lowered their 2026 forecasts for Foundayo sales by more than half, from about $4 billion to less than $2 billion, Trung Huynh, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a research note. Huynh cited a consensus of analysts which is projecting approximately $1.6 billion in 2026 sales, though a Reuters spot check of investment brokerages found a range for this year’s projected sales of $1.5 billion to $2.8 billion.
“Although there have been headwinds on pricing erosion in the GLP-1 space, we believe there is substantial upside with the expected Medicare Part D expansion later this year,” Huynh added. The expansion of sales to the Medicare Part D program would cap patient copays at $50 per month.
Huynh and RBC Capital have projected Foundayo will reach peak-year sales of $36 billion—14% above the $31.68 billion racked up by last year’s best-selling prescription drug, the multi-indication cancer immunotherapy blockbuster Keytruda® (pembrolizumab) marketed by Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK).
The highest peak sales forecast comes from Citi Research, where Geoff Meacham, PhD, the firm’s head of healthcare research and a managing director specializing in U.S. pharma and biotech research, has projected more than $40 billion. At the low end, a consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expects Foundayo peak sales to reach $18 billion by 2030.
Both ends are a far, far cry from the $50 million upfront that Lilly paid in 2018 to license orforglipron, then called OWL833, from Chugai Pharmaceutical, which discovered the drug and is owned by Roche Holding (SIX Swiss Exchange: ROP and RO; OTCQX: RHHBY). Lilly also agreed to pay Chugai up to $390 million in potential payments tied to achieving milestones.
At the time, OWL833 was deemed Phase I ready for clinical studies in type 2 diabetes—the indication for which Lilly markets its GLP-1/GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide) receptor agonist tirzepatide as Mounjaro®, and Novo Nordisk markets its GLP-1 receptor agonist semaglutide as Ozempic®.
“Overall, we continue to believe that injectable anti-obesity medications will retain the majority of market share (roughly 80%, based on our estimates) in the United States due to the high potency of injectables coupled with a more elevated U.S. BMI population,” Andy T. Hsieh, PhD, a partner and biotechnology analyst with William Blair, wrote in a research note.
Beyond competitive pricing and lower manufacturing costs, Lilly has emphasized a convenience advantage over oral Wegovy—starting with its public announcement of the approval, whose headline referred to Foundayo as “the only GLP-1 pill for weight loss that can be taken any time of day without food or water restrictions.”
While Foundayo can be taken morning, afternoon, or evening, oral Wegovy, by contrast, requires patients to take the pill with up to 4 ounces of water on an empty stomach as soon as they wake up, then fast for 30 minutes before they can eat or drink.
“Accordingly, we expect Foundayo to blunt the uptake of oral Wegovy upon its availability (starting on April 6), though oral Wegovy retains a pricing advantage,” Hsieh concluded.
Huynh of RBC Capital agreed, citing a survey by his firm of about 200 patients, payers, and prescribers: “Our recent survey indicated that Foundayo would be a preferred oral option amongst patients since it has no dosing restrictions.”
Not so, Novo Nordisk CEO Maziar (Mike) Doustdar told CNBC last month: “People are really interested because it’s the most efficacious pill right now in the market.”
Novo Nordisk sought to reinforce that message via an announcement trumpeting that its 25 mg dose of oral Wegovy showed “significantly” greater mean weight loss than the 36 mg dose of Foundayo, according to a population-adjusted indirect treatment comparison using data from two clinical trials:
Novo Nordisk plans to present details of its study, called ORION, at the Obesity Medicine Association’s annual Obesity Medicine 2026 conference, set for April 10-12 in San Diego.
News of the FDA approval for Foundayo caused Novo Nordisk shares to dip 0.1% Wednesday from DKK 231.15 ($35.65) to DKK 230.90 ($35.61). But the shares finished the trading week climbing nearly 3% Thursday to DKK 236.90 ($36.53).
U.S. and major European markets were closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Foundayo is the fifth prescription drug to be authorized under the FDA’s Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher program, through which the agency awards vouchers to drug developers whose work will address a health crisis in the United States, deliver more innovative cures, address unmet public health needs, and increase domestic drug manufacturing as a national security issue.
The approval came nearly 10 months ahead of Foundayo’s target decision date of January 20, 2027, under the PDUFA (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) program, and just 50 days after Lilly filed a new drug application (NDA) for the oral obesity drug with the FDA.
The post StockWatch: Price War Dampens Lilly Surge After Oral GLP-1 Wins FDA Nod appeared first on GEN – Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News.
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