The Download: metric weaknesses and AI elephant warnings

This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.

The inevitable weakness of metrics

There are plenty of useful things a metric can reveal. There are even more that it can obscure or corrupt.

Like a lot of people bitten by the self-quantifying bug, I started gathering personal data to pursue a nebulous collection of goals and desires. I wanted to feel better physically and emotionally, get outside more, and bring order to the messiness and uncertainty of my daily existence.

But external metrics and data can never capture what’s truly important. Worse, they inevitably redefine your core sense of what’s important, whether you’re aware of the trap or not.

Dive into the dangers of quantifying our lives with metrics.

—Bryan Gardiner

This story is from the next edition of our magazine, which is all about engineering. Subscribe now to get a copy when it lands!

Elephant alert! AI warning systems aim to avoid deadly clashes

India is home to about 60% of the world’s wild Asian elephants, and around 80% of their habitat lies outside protected areas. That brings them into close contact with people, and clashes can turn lethal: there have been some 3,000 human casualties in the last five years and over 1,000 elephant deaths since 2014.

In response, state forest departments, NGOs, and locals are designing, testing, and deploying a range of AI systems that cut response and warning times to minutes—or even seconds. They range from wildlife eyes in Maharashtra to infrared drones in Chhattisgarh.

Find out how they work in our interactive map.

—Kanika Gupta

The must-reads

I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.

1 The US has allowed Anthropic to release Mythos 5 to “trusted” orgs
About 100 US companies and federal agencies now have access. (Semafor)
+ The White House said appropriate safeguards were now in place. (WSJ $)
+ The US had restricted both models over national security concerns. (BBC)
+ Which raised new questions about AI safety. (MIT Technology Review) 
 
2 A Chinese AI model has matched Mythos in finding security bugs
Security researchers say Zhipu AI is poised to reset the AI race. (WSJ $)
+ It’s sparked alarm that US restrictions are boosting China’s progress. (NYT $)
+ Although it still can’t match Anthropic or OpenAI on general tasks. (Verge)
+ In the AI race, China is eyeing a come-from-behind victory. (WP $)
 
3 Apple is seeking approval to buy chips from a blacklisted Chinese firm
It’s lobbying the White House for clearance to buy from ChangXin. (FT $)
+ ChangXin is on a Pentagon list of firms with Chinese military ties. (WP $)
+ Chipmakers are profiting off AI at the expense of everyone else. (WSJ $)
+ The US is banning imports of more Chinese technology. (Reuters $)
+ But Chinese tech companies feel optimistic. (MIT Technology Review)
 
4. South Korea plans to train its entire military as “drone warriors”
It wants to train all 500,000 personnel. (Reuters $)
+ And produce 110,000 drones by 2029. (Ars Technica)
 
5 Google has limited Meta’s use of its Gemini AI models
Meta wanted more compute than Google could provide. (FT $)
+ The cap has disrupted and delayed some Meta AI projects. (Bloomberg $)

6 Zuckerberg wants Meta to work with Polymarket and Kalshi
Meta wants its own prediction market, but without real-money bets. (NYT $)
+ The partnerships could hedge risks and accelerate development. (Reuters $)
 
7 Extreme heat is putting already hot data centers under pressure
Severe weather is now the leading cause of loss for data centers. (CNBC)
+ Heat waves also mess with your brain. (MIT Technology Review)

8 Android phones alerted millions moments before Venezuela’s earthquakes
They gave users between seconds and up to two minutes’ notice. (NYT $)

9 Scientists think Uranus and Neptune may not be the icy giants we imagined
They may have a magma ocean brewing on the inside. (Gizmodo)

10 Too much sleep may be as harmful as too little
A new study suggests 6.4–7.8 hours is the sweet spot. (Economist $)

Quote of the day

“This kind of powerful weapon that can alter the landscape of cyberwarfare can’t remain solely in American hands.” 

—360 Security CEO Zhou Hongyi tells a cybersecurity conference in Beijing why Chinese AI firms need to match the capabilities of their rivals in the US, The Wall Street Journal reports.

One More Thing

teenage girls on their phones

GETTY


Why Generation Z falls for online misinformation

Research shows that young people are more likely to believe and pass on misinformation if they feel a sense of common identity with the person who shared it in the first place. 

Offline, teenagers are likely to draw on the context that their communities provide. Social media, however, promotes credibility based on identity rather than community. And when trust is built on identity, authority shifts to influencers.

As young people participate in more political discussions online, those who have successfully cultivated identity-based credibility could become de facto community leaders, attracting like-minded people and steering the conversation. While that has the potential to empower marginalized groups, it also exacerbates the threat of misinformation.

Find out what we can all learn about how young people evaluate truth online.

—Jennifer Neda John

We can still have nice things

A place for comfort, fun, and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line.)

+ The Euclid space telescope has captured the most detailed image yet of the Milky Way.
+ Here’s a lovely, lilting medieval bardcore cover of Daft Punk’s electronic classic Veridis Quo.
+ A toilet plunger becomes an unlikely engineering breakthrough in this quest to build a better blowgun.

Association of MAP2 gene polymorphisms and altered expression with schizophrenia risk in a Chinese Han population

BackgroundSchizophrenia (SCZ) is a highly heritable primary psychotic disorder. The microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2) gene is essential for dendritic integrity and synaptic plasticity, positioning it as a key candidate for bridging genetic risk and neuropathology. Nevertheless, the role of common genetic variations within MAP2 in SCZ susceptibility remains to be elucidated.MethodsWe conducted a candidate gene association study of MAP2 in a Han Chinese cohort comprising 418 SCZ patients and 418 matched healthy controls. Targeted sequencing was used to genotype single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). MAP2 mRNA levels were quantified by RT-qPCR and correlated with genotypes and clinical symptoms. Bioinformatic tools (such as GTEx, BrainSeq, 3DSNP, HaploReg, RegulomeDB and SNP2TFBS database) were employed for functional annotation of risk loci.ResultsWe identified multiple MAP2 SNPs associated with SCZ risk in a Han Chinese cohort. Specifically, the AA genotype of rs288057 and the GG genotype of rs288087 were significantly associated with increased disease risk (OR = 2.393 and 2.258, respectively). Expression analysis revealed a marked reduction in peripheral MAP2 mRNA levels in patients compared to controls. This downregulation was genotype-dependent: the risk AA at rs288057 and GG at rs288087 were correlated with lower mRNA levels, a finding supported by its significant eQTL effect in the GTEx and BrainSeq database. In silico annotation suggested rs288087 resides within a putative enhancer region, while rs288057 may affect a promoter-proximal regulatory site. Clinically, MAP2 expression showed a significant positive correlation with the severity of negative symptoms (SANS score). Furthermore, ROC analysis indicated that MAP2 expression levels distinguished patients from controls with an AUC of 0.728.ConclusionThis study identifies MAP2 as a schizophrenia risk gene, wherein non-coding variants likely reduce its expression via distinct regulatory mechanisms, linking this downregulation to core negative symptoms. These findings highlight MAP2’s pathophysiological and translational relevance.

Association between objective sleep structure and suicidal ideation in patients with depression: a study based on polysomnographic regression and cluster analysis

BackgroundDepression is a common mental disorder, and current suicidal ideation (SI) is a clinically important symptom. Sleep disturbance is common in depression, but the relationship between objective sleep architecture and current SI remains unclear. This study examined associations between objective sleep structure and current SI and explored whether sleep-clinical clustering could support exploratory SI stratification.Methods287 patients meeting DSM-5 criteria for depressive disorder underwent clinical assessment and overnight polysomnography (PSG). Current SI was assessed using item 3 of the HAMD-17. Binary logistic regression evaluated factors associated with current SI. K-Means clustering (K = 3) was performed using standardized HAMD score, PSQI score, AHI, total awakenings, N3%, R%, and sleep efficiency. Quantitative cluster validation, sensitivity analyses excluding HAMD from clustering, and ROC-based performance metrics were additionally conducted.ResultsCurrent SI was present in 50.52% (145/287) of patients. In the individual-variable regression model, only HAMD total score was independently associated with current SI (OR = 1.683, p < 0.001). Cluster analysis identified three subgroups with distinct current SI rates: Cluster 1 (deep-sleep dominant, 37.04%), Cluster 2 (high-arousal-apnea, 70.37%), and Cluster 3 (low-arousal-subjective insomnia, 60.80%). The K = 3 solution showed WSS = 1450.71, mean silhouette = 0.204, and Davies-Bouldin index = 1.679. In the demographic-adjusted model, membership in Clusters 2 + 3 was associated with current SI (OR = 3.152, 95% CI: 1.883-5.274, p < 0.001; AUC = 0.700, 95% CI: 0.639-0.760). When HAMD was excluded from clustering, the association remained (OR = 2.669, 95% CI: 1.598-4.458, p < 0.001), whereas additional adjustment for HAMD total score attenuated the primary cluster association (OR = 0.842, 95% CI: 0.411-1.725, p = 0.639).ConclusionsDepression severity was the primary factor associated with current SI. PSG-derived sleep-clinical clusters may help characterize heterogeneous presentations of current SI, but their incremental value beyond depressive severity should be interpreted as exploratory and validated in larger longitudinal samples.

Subjective sleepiness and objective sleep propensity in adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder referred for multiple sleep latency testing

IntroductionAdults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often report excessive daytime sleepiness, but the relationship between subjective sleepiness and objective sleep propensity remains unclear. We examined this relationship in adults referred for Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT) evaluation, using a clinical comparison group with excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) but without ADHD.MethodsIn this retrospective cross-sectional study, we analyzed medical records of 130 adults aged 18 years or older who underwent MSLT between January and December 2021, including 68 adults in the ADHD group and 62 in the EDS-only group. Subjective sleepiness was assessed by the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) and objective sleep propensity by mean MSLT sleep latency, with MSLT positivity defined as mean sleep latency ≤ 480 s. Associations between ESS scores and mean sleep latency were assessed within each group, and correlation coefficients were compared between groups using Fisher’s r-to-z transformation.ResultsESS scores did not differ significantly between groups, with median scores of 14.0 in the ADHD group and 13.0 in the EDS-only group. In contrast, objective sleep propensity differed significantly: median mean sleep latency was longer in the ADHD group than in the EDS-only group (432.0 s vs 322.0 s, p = 0.008), and MSLT positivity was less frequent in the ADHD group (61.8% vs 87.1%, p = 0.001). Within the ADHD group, ESS scores were not significantly correlated with mean sleep latency, including among MSLT-positive cases. A significant inverse correlation was observed in the MSLT-positive EDS-only subgroup, although formal comparison of correlation coefficients did not demonstrate a statistically significant between-group difference in the ESS–MSLT relationship. SOREMP frequencies were numerically higher in the EDS-only group but did not differ significantly between groups.DiscussionThese findings suggest that subjective sleepiness complaints and objective sleep propensity may not closely align in adults with ADHD referred for sleep evaluation, and support the need for integrated psychiatric and sleep-medicine assessment when such patients present with excessive daytime sleepiness.

Associations of TNF-α, MIF, and cortisol with cognitive function in patients with bipolar disorder during acute manic episodes: a short-term follow-up study

BackgroundBipolar disorder (BD) is frequently accompanied by cognitive impairment, and growing evidence suggests that immune-inflammatory activation and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis dysregulation may contribute to its pathophysiology. This study aimed to examine the associations of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF), and cortisol (COR) with cognitive function in patients with BD during manic episodes and to characterize their short-term changes.MethodsIn this short-term follow-up study, 53 patients with BD during manic episodes and 53 healthy controls (HCs) were enrolled. Plasma TNF-α, MIF, and COR levels were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Cognitive function was assessed using the Chinese Brief Cognitive Test, including information processing speed (IPS), executive function (EF), sustained attention (SAT), and working memory (WM). Patients were evaluated at baseline and after 8 weeks of treatment, whereas HCs were assessed once at baseline. Group comparisons and biomarker–cognition correlation analyses were performed. Multiple testing in the correlation analyses was controlled using the Benjamini–Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) procedure.ResultsAt both baseline and follow-up, patients with BD had significantly lower IPS, EF, SAT, and WM scores, but significantly higher plasma TNF-α, MIF, and COR levels, than HCs. After 8 weeks of treatment, cognitive scores in the BD group improved significantly, whereas reductions in TNF-α, MIF, and COR did not reach statistical significance. In exploratory unadjusted Pearson analyses, several biomarker–cognition associations survived FDR correction. However, in the primary adjusted partial correlation analyses, only the negative association between TNF-α and WM remained significant after adjustment for covariates and FDR correction at both baseline and follow-up.ConclusionPatients with BD during manic episodes exhibited widespread cognitive impairment accompanied by elevated inflammatory and neuroendocrine markers. TNF-α showed the most robust association with working memory after adjustment for covariates and correction for multiple comparisons. Associations involving MIF or cortisol and executive function should be interpreted as exploratory and require validation in larger longitudinal studies.