STAT+: Biotech VCs, used to a winning formula in drug development, face disruption

For decades, venture capitalists have relied on a tried-and-true recipe to make money in biotech: Start with compelling scientific research — usually out of a U.S. university lab — add a dash of veteran executives from a pharmaceutical goliath or big biotech, and finish with tens of millions of dollars. The approach has led to scores of new medicines, successful companies, and financial returns for VC firms and their investors. 

Now, it’s being disrupted. 

In the aftermath of biotech’s Covid-era rally and subsequent decline, the industry has been startled to find that Chinese scientists are conducting innovative research, faster and at lower costs, than their U.S. counterparts. In the United States and elsewhere, meanwhile, investors are being wooed by artificial intelligence, drawing attention and dollars away from biotech.

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Single-Cell Atlas of Maternal–Fetal Interface Sheds Light on Pregnancy Complications

The biological connection between a pregnant woman and her developing baby—the human maternal–fetal interface—is a specialized, transient organ composed of uterine cells from the mother and fetal cells that acts as a barrier, supports fetal growth, and maintains the mother’s health. The cellular complexity of the maternal-fetal interface has limited scientists’ ability to study how healthy pregnancies develop and why complications arise. The underlying cellular, molecular, and spatial programs of the interface—which forms about a week after fertilization and lasts until birth—has remain incompletely defined.

Now, the human maternal–fetal interface has been mapped in unprecedented detail by scientists at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), revealing new cell types and providing insights into conditions such as preeclampsia, preterm birth, and miscarriage.

“By examining this tissue cell by cell across pregnancy, we can begin to understand both normal development and what may go wrong,” said Susan J. Fisher, PhD, professor of obstetrics, gynecology, and reproductive sciences at UCSF.

The team generated a comprehensive atlas of the human maternal–fetal interface across normal pregnancies, from early gestation to term. The researchers did this by “integrating large-scale paired single-nucleus transcriptomic and chromatin accessibility profiling with submicrometer-resolution spatial transcriptomics and CODEX multiplex protein imaging.”

Using these tools, the researchers analyzed about 200,000 individual cells and compared them with nearly one million cells in their original positions within the uterine and placental tissue. This enabled them to identify different cell types, track how they develop, and see how they are linked to pregnancy complications.

“This work gives us a much clearer picture of this critical region than ever before,” said Jingjing Li, PhD, associate professor in UCSF’s Department of Neurology and the Eli and Edythe Broad Center of Regenerative Medicine and Stem Cell Research.

This work is published in Nature in the paper, “Single-Cell Spatiotemporal Dissection of the Human Maternal–Fetal Interface.”

The atlas revealed a previously unknown maternal cell type located where fetal placental cells first enter the uterus. These cells appear to regulate how deeply placental cells invade uterine tissue, a process that is essential for establishing blood flow to the fetus. The researchers found that these cells carry a cannabinoid receptor, and exposure to cannabinoid molecules caused them to further restrict placental cell invasion.

“Population studies have linked cannabis use during pregnancy to poorer outcomes,” said Cheng Wang, PhD, a postdoctoral fellow at UCSF. “This cell type may help explain the biological basis of that association.”

To understand how complications arise, the team integrated genetic data from more than 10,000 patients. They mapped genetic risk signals for conditions including preterm birth, preeclampsia, and miscarriage onto regulatory regions of DNA that control gene activity. This approach allowed the researchers to identify the specific cell types and states most strongly associated with each condition.

The team then focused on preeclampsia, a potentially life-threatening disorder marked by sudden high blood pressure. They found that the most affected cell types are involved in remodeling the mother’s uterine blood vessels, a process required to supply adequate blood to the placenta. The findings suggest that preeclampsia may result from disrupted communication between maternal and fetal cells that normally coordinate this process.

Having established a detailed map of healthy pregnancies, the researchers plan to study complicated pregnancies to identify potential targets for treatment.

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Organ-on-Chip Integrated Into Preclinical Glioblastoma Research

Dynamic42 and EPO (Experimental Pharmacology and Oncology), both based in Germany, report that they are addressing the limited availability of preclinical models in brain cancer research by forming a strategic collaboration that focuses on bringing organ-on-chip technologies “closer to the core of preclinical drug development.”

The partnership combines Dynamic42’s organ-on-chip platforms with EPO’s expertise in translational oncology and access to well-characterized tumor models and patient-derived material. Together, the teams are developing experimental setups designed to reflect human tumor biology more closely and generate data that translates more reliably into clinical outcomes.

The first joint projects target glioblastoma and the blood–brain barrier (BBB). Using Dynamic42’s human-based BBB-on-chip model, the partners will explore how differences between human and non-human BBB-biology can influence therapeutic responses, which is a major factor for the limited activity of brain cancer drugs.

“Too often, critical decisions in drug development rely on data that do not fully reflect human biology,” said Thomas Sommermann, PhD, head of cancer research at Dynamic42. “We want to change that. By bringing human-based models earlier into the process, we can sharpen decision-making and reduce late-stage failure risks.”

“For us, this collaboration is about strengthening the translational link,” added Jens Hoffmann, CEO at EPO. “Integrating advanced in vitro systems allows us to look at tumor biology from a different angle and to build robust experimental in vivo strategies.”

The collaboration is designed as a complementary approach that connects established preclinical in vivo expertise with emerging human-based in vitro technologies. It supports more targeted, biology-driven research strategies and the principles of the 3Rs (Replace, Reduce, Refine), contributing to the ongoing shift toward more human-relevant experimental systems.

Beyond joint research, the partnership includes model development activities, elaboration of commercialization strategies, and close scientific exchange, including collaboration between early-career researchers from both organizations.

Dynamic42 and EPO will jointly present the first results of their collaboration at the American Association for Cancer Research® Annual Meeting 2026. Both companies plan to expand the collaboration further, exploring additional indications and extending the use of organ-on-chip technologies across different areas of drug development.

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Team approach to lowering high blood pressure worked even in ‘a tough landscape’

It’s the leading risk factor for the leading cause of death in the United States and around the world: high blood pressure, the prime mover in heart attacks and strokes.

High blood pressure is treatable, but despite having access to effective and affordable medications, more than half of Americans still have uncontrolled hypertension, with rates going up in sync with adverse social determinants of health. 

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STAT+: Trump administration drops court fight to cap NIH payments for research overhead costs

The Trump administration will not be asking the Supreme Court to take up its fight to slash federal support for funding that the nation’s science enterprise relies on for basic operating costs. The deadline to do so came and went this week without a petition from Trump’s Department of Justice, effectively ending the 14-month standoff over a controversial policy to drastically reduce the rate of reimbursement for “indirect costs” on federal grants. 

The legal battle between the administration and the research community started last February, when the National Institutes of Health abruptly announced it would cap payments for research overhead at 15%. Three lawsuits opposing the caps were immediately filed by state attorneys general and organizations representing private and public universities, hospitals, and academic medical centers. 

Under the previous policy, these institutions would negotiate with the NIH for individual rates — to cover expenses not directly linked to the goals of a particular project, like facility upkeep and salaries for grant management staff. Many of the nation’s most elite research institutions typically receive 50% or more of their direct research expenses to cover indirect costs.

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Neuroblastoma Tumor Growth in Mice Suppressed by Blocking Enzyme to Inhibit mTOR Signaling

Neuroblastoma is the most common tumor among children under a year of age, and while in its gentlest form neuroblastoma can regress on its own, it can also take an aggressive form, with high-risk neuroblastoma carrying a five-year survival rate of about 40%.

Researchers at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem have now discovered a mechanistic explanation for how neuroblastoma sustains itself and identified a potential approach to severing that mechanism, by inhibiting nitric oxide (NO) production to suppress mTOR signaling. The collective results from work in human neuroblastoma cells and experiments in a mouse xenograft model showed that inhibiting the enzyme neuronal nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) to inhibit NO production suppressed mTOR signaling and slowed tumor growth.

Professor Haitham Amal, PhD, head of The Laboratory of Neuromics, Cell Signaling, and Translational Medicine, is senior and co-corresponding author of the team’s published paper in Brain Medicine, titled “Targeting nNOS suppresses AKT–TSC–mTOR signaling and inhibits neuroblastoma growth.” In their paper the team concluded “Inhibition of nNOS suppresses mTOR signaling, reduces cellular malignancy, and attenuates tumor growth in vivo, identifying the nNOS-mTOR axis as a promising therapeutic target in neuroblastoma.”

Neuroblastoma accounts for roughly 28% of all cancers diagnosed in infants across Europe and the United States. “Neuroblastoma (NB) refers to a spectrum of neuroblastic tumors that originate from the neural crest cells during fetal development,” the authors wrote. “Neuroblastoma is predominantly a pediatric malignancy, with approximately 97% of cases occurring in children.”

NBs can range from spontaneous regression to maturation to an aggressive, deadly metastatic disease. And as the investigators noted, “Despite major advances in multimodal therapy, high-risk neuroblastoma remains associated with poor prognosis, frequent relapse, and therapy resistance, underscoring the need for a better understanding of the signaling pathways that regulate tumor cell survival, differentiation, and metabolic adaptation.”

Nitric oxide (NO) is an essential regulator of carcinogenesis in various tumors, including NB, the authors pointed out. “Nitric oxide (NO) is a ubiquitous free radical signaling molecule produced in multiple organs and tissues), such as those of the central and peripheral nervous systems.” But at elevated concentrations NO becomes reactive, generating nitrogen species that chemically modify proteins through a process called S-nitrosylation. That modification has been implicated in every stage of cancer progression.

The relationship between nitric oxide and tumors is not simple. Very high concentrations can damage DNA and trigger apoptosis. Lower, sustained levels appear to do the opposite, promoting survival and metastasis. Amal and colleagues had previously demonstrated that nitric oxide drives glioblastoma progression. The question that remained was whether the same enzyme, neuronal nitric oxide synthase, was performing a similar service for neuroblastoma, and if so, through which downstream pathway. The answer turned out to be mTOR.

The team attacked nNOS from two directions. They treated human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells with BA-101, a selective pharmacological inhibitor, at 100 μM for 24 hours. Separately, they silenced the nNOS gene with small interfering RNA. The reasoning was that if a drug and a genetic tool produce the same result, you are looking at biology, not pharmacological noise.

The experiments produced the same result. BA-101 reduced NADPH-diaphorase activity, the standard readout of NOS function, by 35-40%. Genetic silencing cut it by 45-50%. Nitrite levels, a stable proxy for nitric oxide production, fell 65-70% with BA-101 and 55-60% with siRNA. Colony formation, the most direct measure of proliferative capacity, dropped significantly after both BA-101 treatment (p < 0.001) and nNOS silencing (p < 0.01). The cells were losing their ability to multiply.

What followed downstream was systematic. Protein tyrosine nitration, measured by 3-nitrotyrosine immunoreactivity, fell sharply after BA-101 treatment (p < 0.01) and nNOS silencing (p < 0.001). The chemical signature of nitrosative stress was fading.

The results then confirmed that AKT phosphorylation decreased (p < 0.01 with BA-101; p < 0.05 with siRNA), while total AKT remained unchanged. Phosphorylation of mTOR itself declined under both conditions (p < 0.01 each). The downstream mTORC1 substrate ribosomal protein S6 followed (p < 0.05 with BA-101; p < 0.01 with siRNA).

And here, the most telling detail, that TSC2, a master negative regulator of mTOR signaling, rose significantly under both treatments (p < 0.05). Removing the nitric oxide signal had allowed the cell’s own braking system to re-engage. In summary, the authors noted, “Pharmacological inhibition of nNOS with BA-101 (100 μM, 24 h) or genetic silencing of nNOS with siRNA caused upregulation of the key negative regulator TSC2 and decreased phosphorylation of AKT, mTOR, and RPS6, indicating suppression of mTOR pathway activity.”

Synaptophysin, a neuroendocrine tumor marker used to gauge the malignant identity of neuroblastoma cells, decreased significantly with BA-101 (p < 0.01) and nNOS knockdown (p < 0.05). The tumor cells were not merely growing more slowly. They were becoming, at a molecular level, less recognizably cancerous. In summary, the investigators noted, “Our results show that inhibition of NO production in the human NB cell line (SH-SY5Y cells), either by pharmacological intervention using the selective nNOS inhibitor BA-101 (41) or by genetic ablation using the specific siRNA, successfully suppressed NB malignancy.”

Schematic model illustrating the NO-mTOR signaling axis in neuroblastoma. Under basal/pathological conditions (left panel), and nNOS inhibition (right panel). [Haitham Amal]
Schematic model illustrating the NO-mTOR signaling axis in neuroblastoma. Under basal/pathological conditions (left panel), and nNOS inhibition (right panel). [Haitham Amal]

But if blocking nitric oxide suppresses mTOR signaling, then flooding the cell with nitric oxide should amplify it. The researchers tested this by exposing SH-SY5Y cells to SNAP, a nitric oxide donor, at 200 μM for 24 hours. This converse experiment produced the converse result. 3-nitrotyrosine rose (p < 0.05), and TSC2 fell (p < 0.01). Phosphorylation of AKT, mTOR, and RPS6 all increased (p < 0.05 for each).

The team then tested their findings in a xenograft mouse model of neuroblastoma, treated with BA-101. “Importantly, to extend these findings to an in vivo context, we further assessed the impact of pharmacological nNOS inhibition on tumor growth in a xenograft NB model,” they stated. The investigators found that while tumors in control animals grew to approximately 1.5 cm in their largest dimension, the treated tumors did not. Final tumor volume and weight were dramatically reduced in the BA-101 group. ‘Quantitative analysis revealed a dramatic decrease in the final tumor volume and weight in the BA-101-treated group (p < 0.001) compared with controls,” they noted.

Body weight did not differ significantly between groups, suggesting that the compound was tolerated without gross systemic toxicity. In summary, the authors wrote, “Our finding demonstrate that the pro-tumorigenic effects of nNOS in SH-SY5Y involve activation of themTOR signaling pathway.” Importantly, both genetic inhibition of nNOS using siRNA and pharmacological inhibition with BA-101 effectively suppressed mTOR pathway activation and reduced malignant properties of NB cells, highlighting the therapeutic relevance of targeting nNOS signaling.  “These findings indicate that pharmacological inhibition of nNOS effectively suppresses xenograft tumor progression, highlighting the critical role of nNOS-derived NO in promoting neuroblastoma growth in vivo.”

“The magnitude of the in vivo suppression caught our attention,” said Amal, the study’s corresponding author, who holds appointments at the Institute for Drug Research, School of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and the Rosamund Stone Zander and Hansjoerg Wyss Translational Neuroscience Center at Boston Children’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School. “We had demonstrated the role of nitric oxide in glioblastoma previously, but the consistency of the neuroblastoma results across every assay, from protein phosphorylation to colony formation to xenograft growth, points to nNOS as something more than a contributor. It appears to be a central driver of the signaling that sustains this tumor.”

Added first author Shashank Kumar Ojha, PhD, first author of the study and a researcher at the Institute for Drug Research, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, added, “What convinced me was the concordance between the pharmacological and genetic approaches. When BA-101 and siRNA independently produce the same pattern of effects across NADPH-diaphorase activity, nitrosative stress markers, mTOR pathway phosphorylation, and clonogenic growth, you can be confident the biology is real. That reproducibility is what gives you a therapeutic hypothesis worth testing further.”

The authors acknowledged limitations to their study. The in vitro work relied on a single cell line, SH-SY5Y, which cannot capture the full genetic heterogeneity of neuroblastoma or the complexity of the tumor microenvironment. The chemical identity of BA-101 is currently undisclosed pending patent issuance, which means independent replication by other laboratories must wait. Whether nitrosative stress directly underlies its functional impairment, or whether an intermediary mechanism is involved, remains an open question that the authors explicitly flag for future investigation. “Future studies using patient-derived cells, organoids, or genetically engineered mouse models will be important to further validate and extend these observations,” they stated. Nevertheless, the authors suggest, the limitations do not diminish the central discovery of a druggable nNOS–mTOR axis.

mTOR inhibitors such as rapalogs and catalytic mTOR inhibitors have shown limited efficacy as monotherapies in neuroblastoma, undermined by feedback activation and resistance mechanisms. The present study suggests the potential for a different attack strategy. Rather than targeting mTOR at the lock, intervene upstream at the hand that turns the key. By reducing nitric oxide-dependent mTOR activation, nNOS inhibition may sidestep the compensatory pathways that have frustrated direct mTOR blockade. “Collectively, these results identify the nNOS-mTOR axis as a key driver of neuroblastoma progression and suggest that nNOS inhibition represents a promising strategy for NB treatment,” they concluded.

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Smart MRI Agents Combine Cancer Imaging and Therapy in Single Platform

Researchers at NYU Abu Dhabi have developed manganese-based molecules that combine cancer detection and treatment within a single system, allowing for simultaneous imaging and therapy using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The research, published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, details the development of metal–organic structures that remain stable in healthy tissue but become active within the tumor microenvironment, where they both enhance MRI contrast and induce cancer cell death.

“Our goal was to create materials that allow doctors to see cancer clearly and treat it at the same time,” said lead author Farah Benyettou, PhD, a research scientist at NYU Abu Dhabi. “The ability to image and target brain tumors with high precision is particularly exciting.”

The molecules the researchers developed are composed of manganese ions coordinated with organic frameworks arranged into interlocked topologies. Unlike conventional drugs, which are small and relatively simple, these molecules have interlocked structures that resemble knots and rings. This design allows them to behave differently inside the body, improving both imaging and therapeutic performance.

“Manganese (Mn)-based metal–organic architectures offer a unique avenue for integrating magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and cancer therapy within a single molecular platform,” the researchers wrote. The geometrical complexity and electropositive, pH-labile coordination framework allow the molecules to remain intact in normal tissue but disassemble when exposed to the acidic tumor microenvironment.

This pH-responsive behavior is the key to their dual function. In healthy tissue, the molecules maintain stability and limit off-target effects. Once inside tumors, where acidity is elevated, they release Mn2+ ions. These ions enhance T1-weighted MRI signals, making tumors more visible, while also triggering biological pathways that lead to cancer cell death. The researchers wrote that this process culminates in “lysosomal acidification, pH-triggered disassembly, Mn2+ release, ROS accumulation, and caspase-dependent apoptosis,” marrying their imaging capability directly to therapeutic action.

The novel molecule design builds on prior prior research of manganese-based imaging agents and topological chemistry. The researchers noted that conventional gadolinium-based contrast agents have safety limitations, including toxicity and accumulation in tissues, while earlier manganese agents lacked stability and tumor targeting. “These drawbacks underscore the need for next-generation Mn platforms with enhanced stability and tumor specificity,” the researchers wrote. In previous studies, the NYU Abu Dhabi researchers had demonstrated that metal-templated trefoil knots could induce apoptosis in drug-resistant cancer cells, a finding that spurred their efforts to integrate therapeutic activity with an imaging agent.

To evaluate the new molecules, the team conducted both in vitro and in vivo experiments, focused on glioblastoma. In cell studies, Mn-TK and Mn-BR showed selective toxicity toward cancer cells while sparing normal cells. In animal models, the molecules accumulated in tumors, produced strong MRI contrast, and inhibited tumor growth.

An important finding of the study was data that showed both Mn-TK and Mn-BR were able to cross the blood–brain barrier and accumulate in glioblastoma tumors. This has traditionally been a major limitation of MRI contrast agents, which often fail to image tumors in the brain.

The implications for clinical care include the potential to replace separate diagnostic and therapeutic steps with a single intervention. By combining imaging and treatment, the molecules could provide earlier detection, more accurate tumor delineation, and targeted therapy with reduced side effects. The manganese-based design may also offer a safer alternative to gadolinium, which could produce long-term retention and toxicity.

“This work introduces a generalizable strategy for designing manganese-based theranostic agents by integrating topological coordination chemistry with tunable lipophilicity and electrostatics,” the researchers noted, adding that this method could be used to develop additional agents tailored to different cancers or imaging needs.

Next steps for the team include further evaluation of safety, optimization of molecular design, and studies to support clinical translation. The researchers identify Mn-TK and Mn-BR as leading candidates due to their combination of tumor targeting, imaging performance, and therapeutic activity. Continued work will likely focus on refining these properties and assessing their performance in additional disease models.

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Smart Contact Lens Offers Glaucoma Treatment Potential

A “smart contact lens” can monitor eye pressure and manage and release glaucoma drugs to counteract any rises in this, preclinical research suggests.

The all-polymer, microfluidic lens, described in Science Translational Medicine, represents further progress towards personalized eye technologies in a “theranostic” approach that combines diagnostics and therapy.

The battery-free device was able to monitor intraocular pressure—the most prominent, modifiable risk factor for glaucoma—and could release glaucoma drugs timolol and brimonidine at pressure thresholds in animal studies.

The device could one day provide frequent, real-time pressure monitoring with responsive drug release for patients at home, offering an alternative to the infrequent gold-standard measurements in the office, which only occur every six to 12 months.

“This electronic- and power-free device combines softness, optical transparency, biocompatibility, and cost-effectiveness, offering a noninvasive approach to continuously monitor IOP and deliver individualized therapy,” reported Yuting Cai, PhD, from Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and co-workers.

They added: “Beyond glaucoma, the platform is compatible with commercial soft contact lenses and can be reconfigured to monitor additional tear biomarkers, enabling a wider range of ocular care applications.”

Biosafety assessment of AP-TSCL-Timo and AP-TSCL-Pro after two weeks of wear [Yangzhi Zhu, Terasaki Institute for Biomedical Innovation]

Glaucoma is often referred to as the “silent thief of sight” and is the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide.

Its prevalence is predicted to increase sharply due to aging populations, rising from 80 million people in 2020 to around 134 million in 2040.

Although it is progressive and incurable, early diagnosis and treatment can preserve vision and maintain quality of life, although this requires reliable tools to identify those at risk and deliver therapies.

While smart contact lenses represent a promising platform to deliver this, the need to embed electronics, power sources, and manufacturing costs represent potential barriers in terms of patient comfort and accessibility.

To address this, the team developed an all-polymer theranostic smart contact lens (AP-TSCL) capable of continuously measuring intraocular pressure with autonomous programmable drug delivery without the need for bulky electronic components or manual operation.

The lens integrates a noninvasive, real-time microfluidic sensor that measures intraocular pressure together with a multidose, feedback-responsive drug release unit.

A biomimetic silk sponge enhances both its sensing sensitivity and the consistency of drug delivery, providing high mechanical robustness and operates well over a physiological pressure range of 16 to 32 mmHg.

By coupling the intraocular pressure readout with pressure-gated drug release, the platform is designed to enhance therapeutic efficacy while reducing unnecessary exposure under normotensive conditions. This may help mitigate ocular irritation and systemic side effects associated with conventional topical β-blockers in susceptible patients, the authors explain.

Comprehensive in vitro, ex vivo studies in cow eyes, and in vivo studies in rabbits validated its biocompatibility, accuracy, and therapeutic efficacy, demonstrating its potential as a low-cost, patient-compliant platform for personalized glaucoma therapy in real-world settings.

“This power- and electronic-free SCL represents a remarkable advancement toward multifunctional ocular medical devices that integrate diagnostics and therapeutics for intelligent ocular health care delivery,” the research team maintained.

“It lays the groundwork for developing a family of pharmacy-on-a-contact-lens tools capable of delivering clinically relevant information about human health and establishes the foundation for next-generation, self-powered, electronic-free SCLs capable of accessible diagnosis and therapeutics.”

 

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Predicting Momentary Suicidal Ideation From Smartphone Screenshots Using Vision-Language Models: Prospective Machine Learning Study

Background: Passive smartphone sensing shows promise for suicide prevention, but behavioral metadata (GPS, screen time, and accelerometry) often lacks the contextual information needed to detect acute psychological distress. Analyzing what people actually see, read, and type on their phones—rather than just usage patterns—may provide more proximal signals of risk. Objective: This study aimed to test whether vision-language models (VLMs) applied to passively captured smartphone screenshots can predict momentary suicidal ideation (SI). Methods: Seventy-nine adults with past month suicidal thoughts or behaviors completed ecological momentary assessments (EMA) over 28 days while screenshots were captured every 5 seconds during active phone use. We fine-tuned open-source VLMs (Qwen2.5-VL [Alibaba Cloud], LFM2-VL [Liquid AI]), and text-only models (Qwen3 [Alibaba Cloud]) to predict SI from screenshots captured in the 2 hours preceding each EMA. We evaluated performance with temporal and subject holdouts. Results: The analytic sample comprised 2.5 million screenshots from 70 participants. Temporal holdout models achieved strong discrimination at the EMA level (AUC=0.83; AUPRC=0.77), with image-based models outperforming text-only models (AUC=0.83 vs 0.79; 95% CI 0.003-0.07). Subject holdout generalization was near chance (AUC≈0.50), though a simple lexical screening method retained modest discrimination (AUC=0.62). Smaller models performed comparably to larger models, supporting feasible on-device deployment. Conclusions: Screen content predicts short-term SI with clinically meaningful accuracy when models are personalized but does not generalize across individuals. These findings support a 2-stage clinical architecture, coarse lexical screening for new patients, with personalized VLM-based monitoring after a calibration period. On-device inference may enable privacy-preserving deployment.
<img src="https://jmir-production.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/thumbs/ce9a296732ecb1406f4fc62d4f58986f" />

Bladder Cancer: Urine Test Improves Relapse Predictions

Stanford researchers have developed a urine test that can accurately predict which patients with bladder cancer will respond to standard surgery and immunotherapy treatments. In a study published in Cell, they report that this DNA test takes into account background mutations caused by aging that existing tests may otherwise mistake for cancer. 

“Our test can detect minimal residual disease non-invasively after bladder cancer treatment, while accounting for mutations present in normal urothelium that have complicated prior studies,” said Joseph C. Liao, MD, professor of urology and senior author of the study. “For the first time, we were able to distinguish patients likely cured by [immunotherapy] from those cured by surgery.”

Even when detected in early stages, bladder cancer has a high relapse rate. Patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), whose tumors are still confined to the inner layers of the bladder, are typically treated with surgery. Those with higher risk profiles are then given a bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG) immunotherapy, which can significantly reduce recurrence risk after surgery. 

However, while some patients respond well to surgery without immunotherapy, others may end up relapsing even after receiving BCG immunotherapy. Until now, there was no reliable way to predict which patients will respond to each of these treatments, making it difficult for physicians and patients alike to make informed clinical decisions. 

The molecular test developed by Liao and colleagues analyzes urine tumor DNA in urine samples to detect the presence of tumor DNA and predict whether a patient will respond to standard surgery or BCG treatment. Importantly, the test was designed to account for the “field effect,” a phenomenon where even healthy people can carry cancer-associated mutations in the bladder’s lining, with these mutations becoming increasingly common as the person ages. 

“By correcting for the field effect, a known confounder of mutation-based bladder cancer detection, we improved the specificity of urine tumor DNA liquid biopsies,” said William Y. Shi, MD/PhD student at Stanford School of Medicine and lead author of the study. “This allowed us to molecularly distinguish the relative contributions of surgery and BCG to disease control.”

The researchers evaluated the urine test in a cohort of 261 NMIBC patients who underwent surgery and BCG treatment. Results revealed three distinct molecular patterns of treatment response. These included surgery responders, for whom tumor DNA disappeared after surgery; BCG responders, who showed tumor DNA after surgery that was eliminated with the immunotherapy; and non-responders who saw tumor DNA levels remain stable or even increase after both treatments. 

“The ability to distinguish responders from non-responders to the two treatments also allowed us to study which molecular properties make tumors more likely to benefit from each therapy,” said Max Diehn, MD, PhD, professor of radiation oncology and senior author of the study. 

The study also revealed distinct molecular patterns driving response to surgery and response to BCG immunotherapy. On the one hand, patients who relapsed after surgery had tumors with genetic activity linked to cell growth and invasion. On the other hand, tumors who responded to BCG had a higher mutation burden and tended to have features that made them more visible to the immune system. 

Following validation in a larger patient cohort, this urine test could help spare patients who respond well to surgery from receiving an unnecessary course of immunotherapy. In particular, BCG supply has suffered from shortages for the past decade, leaving many patients waiting for longer than necessary. In the face of shortages, a predictive test could help prioritize those who are most likely to benefit from it. 

For patients who are unlikely to respond to both surgery and BCG, the urine test could also prove valuable in escalating treatment early on. In the study, the test was able to identify recurrence risk in patients for whom routine cystoscopy exams appeared normal, meaning it could be able to detect relapse earlier than the current standard. 

“These kinds of predictive biomarkers are critical,” said Eila C. Skinner, MD, professor of urology and chair of Stanford’s Department of Urology. “We have new treatments that are costly and carry risk of side effects. We would love to personalize therapy to ensure each patient receives the best treatment for their individual cancer.”

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