The inevitable weakness of metrics
There are plenty of useful things a metric can reveal. There are even more it can obscure or corrupt. It took me well over a decade of tracking my own life in ever greater detail to fully appreciate this duality, which probably reveals something about both me and the nature of measurement.
Like a lot of people bitten by the self-quantifying bug, I initially started gathering personal data to pursue a nebulous collection of goals and desires. As a sedentary technology journalist, I wanted to feel better physically and emotionally, to get outside more, and—where possible—to bring order to some of the messiness and uncertainty of my daily existence. These all seemed to be things that could be improved with the cool clarity of numbers.
Self-quantifiers often get stereotyped as obsessive self-optimizers (and many of them are), but my reasons for producing and collecting personal data were less about life-maxxing and more about life meaning—at least at first. As most people who know me will attest, I do not have now, nor have I ever possessed, a “productivity mindset.” I’m also not all that interested in life hacks, shortcuts, or new ways to compare myself with other people. Instead, what I wanted out of metrics—what I hoped I could divine from a never-ending stream of numbers about my health, work, and social life—was something more elusive: self-knowledge. This was my first mistake.
The idea that the more we know, the better is so profoundly embedded in our culture that it feels weird to even point it out. Since at least as far back as the Enlightenment, the primary way we’ve all agreed to go about knowing more has been through measurement and quantification. After all, more knowledge—more data—leads to better decisions, which leads to happier, more fulfilled people. Or so we’re told, and with increasing frequency in the era of AI.
When two Wired magazine editors, Gary Wolf and Kevin Kelly, coined the term “quantified self” in 2007 and helped launch the movement we are all now helplessly a part of, they were essentially selling this very idea. “Unless something can be measured, it cannot be improved,” wrote Kelly in an early blog post, doing his best impression of Lord Kelvin. “So we are on a quest to collect as many personal tools that will assist us in quantifiable measurement of ourselves.” Almost 20 years later, that quest is easier than ever thanks to a flood of devices, apps, and websites all designed to help us build our self-knowledge through numbers.
My first tool was a small, plastic clip-on Fitbit I started using in 2011. It did one thing: count the number of steps I took in a day. As a lifelong video game player, I was already well acquainted with the motivational power of simple scoring systems, and I hoped my new gadget would offer the gentle numerical nudge I thought I needed to step away from my Twitter feed and, if not touch grass, at least walk next to some. Walking also seemed to be one of the few times I had what could charitably be called intelligent ideas, which seemed like another promising by-product of doing more of it.
Alas, that was short-lived. I can’t tell you precisely when “getting out into nature more” or “thinking smarter thoughts” stopped mattering to me as goals, but I suspect it took no more than a few weeks. What I can say with certainty is that my initial goal of 6,000 daily steps quickly turned into 10,000, which then jumped to 15,000 and eventually settled at 20,000 for years. Stories about becoming a “steps guy” are clichéd at this point, and they’ve earned that status for a reason.
It didn’t take long for me to trade in pedometers for heart-rate monitors (I also started running), smartwatches, sleep-tracking rings, and an embarrassing number of macronutrient-tabulating apps. Outside the health and fitness realm, my early career as a journalist also happened to coincide with the rise of social media and web analytics tools like Chartbeat, which promised to further quantify difficult-to-measure aspects of my life, like “job success” and “impact,” by tracking things like page views, followers, retweets, likes, and all sorts of other attentional metrics that now carry great weight.
Metrics inevitably redefine your core sense of what’s important, whether you’re aware of the trap or not.
Ultimately, during the 10-plus years I diligently tracked my heart rate, steps, active calories, sleep, story engagement time, stress levels, and other metrics, I gained virtually nothing in terms of greater self-knowledge. (I suppose I did learn that I liked to make numbers go up and down, but who doesn’t?) The swirl of data that followed me everywhere did not lend additional meaning or insight to the way I relate to myself, my work, or the important people in my life. In fact, the more I used numerical proxies, the worse I felt about pretty much everything.
What I did learn were two important lessons about what happens when you try to quantify the minutiae of your life. First and foremost, whatever the amount of data you’re currently collecting about yourself, it will never feel sufficient. There’s always a new metric around the corner, a better way for a tracker to remix its readings and more accurately measure what’s “important”: heart rate variability, daily stress, exercise “readiness,” cardiovascular or “fitness” ages. Measurement begets more measurement. You can count on it.

C. Thi Nguyen
The second lesson was less obvious but no less significant. The more personal or nuanced your goals are when you set off on your self-quantifying journey, the more likely it is you will ultimately replace them with some simplified metric or ranking. Want to become a better journalist? Why not use page views and leaderboards as a proxy for success? Enjoy cooking and want to improve? Foodie metrics dictate that more complicated recipes with longer ingredient lists are the answer. Even when we know that the value of good journalism isn’t reflected in how many people read a given story or that the joys of cooking are as much about improvisation and experimentation as about successfully following some complex recipe, it’s hard to resist the allure of a simple score or stat. Metrics inevitably redefine your core sense of what’s important, whether you’re aware of the trap or not.
Over the years, people have invented various terms to describe this phenomenon. In his recent book The Score: How to Stop Playing Somebody Else’s Game, the philosopher C. Thi Nguyen calls it “value capture.” Value capture happens, he says, when you adopt external sources of measurement and then let them rule you without adapting them to suit your life. “In value capture, you’re essentially outsourcing your values,” Nguyen writes. “You’re letting an external metric or ranking set what’s important for you.” Crucially, you’re also outsourcing the process of figuring out your own sense of meaning. It’s why my walks quickly shifted from feeling meditative to prioritizing miles.
Individuals, institutions, and indeed entire societies can fall prey to value capture. In fact, once you start noticing it, you start seeing it everywhere—in journalism, education, and business, but also in our food, our hobbies, and, yes, the way we measure our health and happiness. Here’s how Nguyen puts it:
Value capture happens when a restaurant stops caring about making good food and starts caring about maximizing its Yelp ratings. It happens when students stop caring about education and start caring about their GPA. It happens when scientists stop caring about finding truth and start caring about getting the biggest grants. It even happens in religion. A pastor recently told me that his church had become completely obsessed with baptism rates. The higher-ups had established an internal leaderboard in which the pastors competed on monthly baptism rates, and it was starting to dominate everybody’s attention. He’d found himself caring less about the long-term spiritual development of his flock and focusing more on trying to deliver popular sermons that would up his baptism rates and move him up that leaderboard.
At its core, The Score is trying to untangle a mystery that Nguyen, a specialist in the philosophy of games at the University of Utah, has been thinking about for a long time: Why is it that numbers and scoring systems in games can be the source of so much joy and fluidity and play, but public measures and institutional metrics (i.e., scores that apply to the real world) seem to drain the life out of everything and thrust us all into a bleak mindset of grinding optimization?
To begin to answer this question, he turns to one of the foundational inquiries into the limits of data and quantification, Theodore M. Porter’s 1995 book Trust in Numbers: The Pursuit of Objectivity in Science and Public Life.
Porter, a historian of science who specializes in the social power of numbers, has spent his career looking at why quantification has become so dominant, not just in political and bureaucratic life but everywhere. One of his key insights about the inherent attractiveness of quantification, which he calls “a technology of distance,” is that it “minimizes the need for intimate knowledge and personal trust.” Put another way, metrics travel extremely well between different contexts and are easy to grasp and aggregate.
Whether it’s a student’s GPA or a country’s GDP, these measures are understood by pretty much everyone. But that understanding comes at a price, Porter reminds us: To arrive at a clear metric, you inevitably need to simplify what you’re attempting to measure, often jettisoning heaps of nuanced, qualitative, or open-ended information so that others can find the resulting number legible.
No one (hopefully) believes that a GPA captures in any meaningful way a student’s entire educational experience or aptitude for learning, but we’ve agreed to use it because more qualitative assessments are onerous to wade through and require expertise to decipher and compare. Ditto for the economic metric of GDP, which politicians and societies are now compelled to drive higher and higher because a group of economists once concluded that this figure correlates with general economic well-being.
This is the essential tension at the heart of all data, argues Nguyen. Any institutional quantification, he says, requires that the evaluation procedure and its product be comprehensible across contexts. That profoundly limits what the metric can actually measure. “In value capture, you’re ultimately taking that decontextualized nugget and internalizing it,” he writes. “You’re guiding your life using an evaluative technology that has been engineered to travel between contexts, by stripping it of nuance.”
Every so often I’ll find myself in friendly debate with a “numbers person”—a statistician, an economist, or a friend who’s still a committed self-quantifier. After patiently listening to my measurement-gone-awry examples—the disastrous attempt to quantify pain as “the fifth vital sign” in the mid-1990s (which exacerbated the opioid epidemic), or any of the countless examples of the McNamara fallacy, where decisions in academia, medicine, and politics are based solely on what’s easily measured—many will insist that I’m misunderstanding or misinterpreting the whole point of measuring. Metrics, they’ll say, are simply a means, and the important questions concern the ends for which they are used. In other words, these unfortunate outcomes amount to user error, not something inherently dangerous or misleading about the nature of measurement.
At some point during these conversations, Goodhart’s Law will invariably come up, usually as an explanation the metrics-minded deploy for why the ends get all mucked up. The principle, which is attributed to the British economist Charles Goodhart, is often expressed as the following: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” I have a profound dislike for Goodhart’s Law, not because I think it’s untrue, but rather for the way it gets interpreted.
As Nguyen notes, Goodhart’s Law says very little about why metrics fail to capture what’s important—or what to do about it. Find better measures, some will conclude. Don’t let metrics become targets, others will insist. These are not helpful takeaways. All measurements, I would argue, are in fact targets, whether you intend them to be or not. Metrics inevitably present one direction or option as better, Nguyen writes in The Score—“longer lifespans, faster student graduation rates, more page views, higher customer satisfaction scores.” What people are talking about when they bring up Goodhart’s Law isn’t human error; it’s actually a fundamental problem with measurement itself.
I want to be clear here: Measurement can and does serve a number of vital functions. It has in a very literal sense made the modern world possible, with all its life-saving, suffering-reducing, and awe-
inspiring scientific breakthroughs. When used with care and diligence, metrics can make our progress (or lack of it) clearer and more transparent. Are we decreasing carbon dioxide emissions or not? They can also introduce accountability into formerly opaque systems, such as by measuring whether a company is complying with state and federal regulations. They can even make us more objective, reduce biases, and galvanize us to act.
But as Nguyen points out throughout The Score, the fundamental weakness of metrics comes when we use them to pursue subtler, more personal goals. What I think many of us miss—what I know I certainly missed—is that there are always trade-offs when you try to distill something important down to a data point. When we turn to metrics to understand ourselves, our social world, and culture as a whole, they will never come close to capturing what matters. Even worse, they’ll often actively obscure it.
Today, I find that numbers have very little to offer when it comes to my daily work, my physical or mental fitness, my relationships, or any other part of my life I consider important. Granted, I’m lucky enough to be in relatively good health at the moment. I don’t have to track my glucose levels or monitor my blood pressure. As a freelance writer, I also have the luxury of not having numbers foisted on me in the form of key performance indicators (KPIs), objectives and key results (OKRs), or any of the endless quantitative evaluations that come baked into pretty much every corporate and gig economy job.
Still, in a very real sense, there is no escaping metrics or, especially, the logic that accompanies them. Knowing has become numeric, and we all live in a world that increasingly sees us as a collection of numbers—as “data subjects.” The first and most urgent challenge, I’d suggest, is finding a way to keep us from seeing ourselves and each other that way.
This won’t be easy. As Porter, Nguyen, and countless other philosophers, anthropologists, and historians have already observed, the language of numbers is largely how we ascribe value today—as well as how we digest and metabolize our relationships to ourselves, to others, and to the world around us. Indeed, many of us have accepted not only that metrics have a natural existence in human affairs but that there are in fact no aspects of human life that cannot be somehow translated into data.
Knowing has become numeric, and we all live in a world that increasingly sees us as a collection of numbers— as “data subjects.”
So how do we push back? Nguyen’s book offers a useful first step. As he notes again and again in The Score, believing that numbers say something real or useful about human needs and desires gives them power. We can, at the very least, start to seriously question that belief, to ask what meaning and pleasure we might be giving up in pursuit of a metric.
Doing so will hopefully lead to another realization: that playing the numbers game is ultimately a losing proposition for humans. If we insist on expressing our worth through attentional metrics and productivity scores, if we continue to turn intelligence and creativity into a series of benchmarks for AI to surpass, we’ve already lost. Of course machines will surpass us in a world built around metrics. That is literally what we create them to do. The answer is not to turn ourselves into machines too.
If there’s one thing that keeps me up at night, it is that we’ve become so accustomed to seeing and understanding the larger world and ourselves through numbers that it has deprived us of the language to express what’s fundamental and valuable about our own humanity. We need this ability now more than ever, especially if we’re going to adequately answer two of the most important questions of our era: What are humans for? And what is AI for?
As part of my own attempts to disentangle myself from a life of numbers—efforts that started shortly before covid—I’ve abandoned most of the tools of measurement I spent a decade collecting. I’ve largely given up on social media. I stopped using apps to track my health and well-being. The watch I currently wear tells me the time and the date and nothing else.
In fact, the only holdover from my days of obsessive self-quantification is a dogmatic devotion to walking—without all the step counting, of course. These days, I walk when I’m feeling disillusioned or overwhelmed; I walk when I can’t figure out how to finish an essay; I also walk because I enjoy spending time outdoors with my dog and catching up on the details of my neighbors’ lives. The benefits of pursuing this daily activity are as clear and obvious to me as anything could be in life. I just can’t express them in a number.
Bryan Gardiner is a writer based in Oakland, California.
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Single-Cell RNA Sequencing Reveals Gene Activity Changes in Crohn’s Disease
Researchers from the Wellcome Sanger Institute, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CUH), and Open Targets have created a detailed cellular study of Crohn’s disease (CD), mapping how gene activity changes across more than 50 cell types in the gut. (Founded in 2014, Open Targets is a pre-competitive, public-private partnership that uses human genetics and genomics data to systematically identify and prioritize drug targets.)
Co-led by Tim Raine, MD, PhD, consultant gastroenterologist at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, the team analyzed over a million gut cells from people with Crohn’s and from healthy controls, comparing changes in the gut lining and identifying immune cells that drive inflammation. The resulting single cell RNA-sequencing (sc-RNA-seq) resource, IBDverse, characterizes each cell type and those whose activity shifts in disease, uncovering new molecular and cellular signatures of immune activity in the gut lining.
Co-first author Monika Krzak, PhD, formerly at the Wellcome Sanger Institute and now based at the Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, said, “Crohn’s disease is complex, variable and deeply personal to every individual living with it, which is why understanding it at the level of single cells is so important. By creating this unprecedented map of more than one million gut cells, we are giving researchers around the world a powerful new tool to uncover how inflammation begins, persists and may one day be stopped. This is the kind of open science that can accelerate discoveries and bring us closer to better treatments for patients.”
Raine added, “There is an urgent need for increased understanding of the biology of Crohn’s disease if we are to develop more effective and safe medications for people living with this condition. The patients who contributed to this research have helped us build insight into the different ways that gut function and immune function are disrupted in the disease, and with the insight comes immediate new avenues for drug development and targeted therapies.”
Reported in Nature Genetics (“Single-cell RNA sequencing of terminal ileal biopsies identifies signatures of Crohn’s disease pathogenesis,”) the research revealing the cell types and molecular changes involved in Crohn’s inflammation is one of two complementary studies—the other a paper recently published in Nature—built on IBDverse to investigate different aspects of the disease.
In their newly published report the team concluded, “These findings establish a comprehensive cellular and molecular framework for CD, offering insights into disease mechanisms and therapeutic opportunities.”
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is an umbrella term used to describe disorders that cause chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract. Over half a million people in the U.K. are estimated to be living with IBD, which includes Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis.
Crohn’s is a chronic condition that causes inflammation and ulcers in the digestive tract, from the mouth to the anus, often affecting the small intestine and colon. However, the authors noted, “Although inflammation is most commonly observed in the terminal ileum, CD exhibits substantial heterogeneity in disease location, severity and behavior, both between patients and within patients, over time.”
Although inflammation is most commonly observed in the terminal ileum—the final section of the small intestine—Crohn’s is found in many locations of the body and with variation in severity both between patients and within patients over time.
While therapies targeting immune cells have improved clinical outcomes for some patients, non-response to treatment remains high, with 15% of Crohn’s patients requiring surgery within five years of diagnosis. Consequently, there is an urgent need to better understand the etiology of CD in order to broaden therapeutic opportunities,” the investigators stated.
For their newly reported study the researchers took and analyzed biopsies from 111 patients with Crohn’s and a history of current or previous terminal ileitis—inflammation of the ileum—and 232 healthy volunteers. The team performed single-cell RNA sequencing to measure gene expression in individual cells. “Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) technologies provide a high-throughput means to dissect complex tissues at the resolution of single cells and cell types,” they noted.
By creating a comprehensive map of cellular and molecular differences in Crohn’s compared to healthy controls, the researchers established IBDverse as a result—an online data resource of over 1,185,000 cells isolated from small intestine samples. The large IBDverse dataset will serve as an open resource for future research.
Using the data, the scientists identified genes that are abnormally expressed in Crohn’s and those where expression is specific to given cell types and cellular processes.
One of the study’s most striking findings was a ‘molecular scar’ in the gut lining. Even after visible inflammation had healed, genes that help send messages to the immune system stayed switched on in the gut’s stem cells—the cells that constantly renew the lining. This suggests that an episode of inflammation leaves a lasting mark on these cells, which may shape how the gut responds to inflammation in future. In their paper the authors noted, “We uncovered epithelial changes marked by interferon-driven upregulation of major histocompatibility complex class I molecules that persisted in progenitor cells after macroscopic inflammation resolution.”
The researchers also identified a population of macrophages—immune cells that engulf and digest cellular debris—with high expression of the gene ITGA4. These cells were key drivers of inflammation through the JAK/STAT pathway, which carries signals from the cell surface to the nucleus to switch genes on and off. “ITGA4+ macrophages were identified as key inflammatory drivers, showing enriched JAK–STAT signaling and cytokine expression (interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-12 and IL-23),” the investigators stated. Drugs that block this pathway, known as JAK inhibitors, are already used to treat IBD, which points to these macrophages as a likely target of therapies.
Co-first author Tobi Alegbe, PhD, at the Wellcome Sanger Institute and Open Targets, said “For inflammatory bowel diseases like Crohn’s and ulcerative colitis, it’s still unclear what is going wrong in the gut cells to cause inflammation. We have been able to compare gut cells of hundreds of people with and without IBD. This has given us new insight into the genes and cell types that are involved during active disease, and lays the groundwork for similar approaches to understand diseases of other major organs like eczema and asthma.”
Co-senior author Carl Anderson, PhD, at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said “What makes this study different is that we designed replication in from the start and found that even with hundreds of patients and standardized protocols, fewer than half of the gene expression changes we detected in one cohort replicated in the other. That’s a sobering finding for the field. The biology that did replicate consistently points to the gut lining itself as a key player in Crohn’s with a molecular signature in epithelial cells that persists even after inflammation has resolved. We don’t yet know what that persistence means, but it likely influences how the gut responds to future inflammatory insults.”
The post Single-Cell RNA Sequencing Reveals Gene Activity Changes in Crohn’s Disease appeared first on GEN – Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News.
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Paper Mills and the Fight Against Scientific Fraud
Scientific publishing is facing a growing challenge from fabricated research produced by industrial-scale paper mills. But researchers and publishers are fighting back through technology and collaboration to protect the integrity of the scientific record.
Scientific publishing is based on the trust that the data are real and that peer review ensures quality. But that trust is being eroded by commercial enterprises known as paper mills—coordinated commercial operations that sell authorship slots in fraudulent or manipulated manuscripts, then submit those manuscripts to journals.
Unlike traditional misconduct, these are not lone researchers cutting corners but businesses producing research at scale, often tailored to meet the demands of specific fields, journals, and career incentives.
A recent analysis of almost 19,000 online adverts for paper mills revealed authorship slots being sold for between $36 to $5,600 depending on the position of the slot, highlighting how commercialized the market is. The average for a first author position was $1,030 and, although the study did not examine which adverts resulted in published papers, another investigation traced approximately 1,000 authorship adverts to more than 400 published papers.
The magnitude of the problem is difficult to estimate. A 2022 report by the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and the International Association of Scientific, Technical & Medical Publishers (STM) found that the percentage of suspect papers submitted to journals was around two percent overall but increased sharply to as high as 46% in journals targeted by paper mills.
The pressure to publish

Professor
Queensland University of Technology
For honest researchers, it might be difficult to understand why paper mills even exist. At the heart of the issue is what Adrian Barnett, PhD, a professor in the Australian Centre for Health Services and Innovation at Queensland University of Technology, described as the “publish or perish” phenomenon.
“If I could do one simple thing tomorrow, I would ban all the university league tables,” said Barnett. “They’re just encouraging corruption.” Ranking systems that prioritize publication volume can push researchers toward quantity over quality, making paper mills an easy way to meet expectations.
Furthermore, publication is often not just a measure of success but a requirement for career progression. “For the clients, it’s believed that they need publications that they can’t achieve through their own efforts, either because they don’t have the time, the facilities, the training, or the money to do research and yet, for whatever reason, their employers expect them to,” explained Jennifer Byrne, PhD, a professor of molecular oncology and lead of the Publication and Research Integrity in Medical Research group at the University of Sydney.

Professor
University of Sydne
Byrne has published extensively about paper mills and publication integrity; she got into the field accidentally when she came across some papers about a gene that her team discovered many years earlier. “In 2014–2015, we realized that five or six different groups suddenly published very similar papers about this gene in different journals,” she said. “And I just thought, that doesn’t really make a lot of sense.”
Upon investigation, Byrne found that the papers, and a further 48 similar publications, showed features consistent with mass production. She has since proposed that human gene research in general is highly vulnerable to paper mills. “You can hide fake research quite effectively in experimental fields, because it’s very difficult and time-consuming to reproduce experimental studies,” she said.
Why paper mills matter
Aside from the obvious fraud, paper mills are problematic for several reasons. Byrne describes them as “a billion-dollar problem” with few resources devoted to tackling it. And although she and others have advocated for scaled investments, progress so far has been slow.
The publishing system can also reinforce the problem. Paper mills are profit-driven, but journals also benefit through article processing charges and citations, creating what Byrne describes as a “circle” in which “everyone gets what they want.”
The consequences of paper mill papers being published can influence real research. The papers are cited, reused, and built upon, wasting both time and money for all involved.
More broadly, the erosion of trust can drive researchers away from entire fields. In Byrne’s case, she stopped doing preclinical cancer research. “I left because there were a lot of papers that I couldn’t trust. When you get to the point where you can’t trust most of the recent literature, it’s very difficult to continue,” she said.
There are also more sinister risks. Barnett recalled reports of paper mills exploiting their clients, including instances of potential blackmail. “If you’ve been a regular customer and then you suddenly stop, they might try and squeeze more money,” he said. “They’ve got absolutely no scruples.”
Despite these impacts, deterrents are limited. “There are almost none,” said Byrne.
Retractions are often slow, meaning damage is done before action is taken, and retraction rates are far below where they should be.
In an April 2026 report to a U.S. Congress hearing on the state of scientific publishing, Kate Travis, managing editor of Retraction Watch, showed that the retraction rate was around 0.2% in 2025, up from 0.02% in 2016. Yet, the report states that Retraction Watch “are confident that the rate […] should be about two percent—10 times what it is today.”
How to tackle the problem
Concerns about problematic papers are often raised by individual researchers or so-called science sleuths on platforms such as PubPeer. Although they have become skilled at spotting telltale signs of a paper mill, like manipulated images, distinct layouts, author affiliations that might not match the topic of the paper, unusual patterns of coauthors, and fake peer reviews, it is difficult for the untrained eye to detect problems from a single paper.
This is why there have been calls for increased awareness. “Awareness is always the first step,” said Byrne, who is working with The Lancet–World Conferences on Research Integrity Foundation commission to address critical issues related to research integrity.
Efforts to extend awareness are also being coordinated through initiatives such as United2Act, which brings together stakeholders from research institutions, publishers, sleuths, and universities to develop shared guidance and educational resources.
But even with greater coordination, human detection has limits. As paper mills scale, automated tools are becoming essential.
Earlier this year, Barnett, Byrne, and colleagues published a paper in the BMJ showing that their large language model (LLM) could flag papers suspected of being from paper mills by analyzing sentence-level patterns. The model identified 9.9% of more than 2.6 million cancer research papers for further review. Many of the papers were linked to regions with strong publication incentives, including China.
However, Barnett emphasized that the model “is not a 100% proof, it’s a quick and simple flag that should encourage reviewers to look at those papers and look for other signs of paper mill activity.”
Other paper mill detection technologies are also available. Platforms such as Clear Skies, which is used by the STM Integrity Hub, use machine learning to detect patterns across large bodies of literature, while image-forensics tools and cross-publisher data sharing help identify duplicated figures and submissions.
Alongside these tools, Barnett suggested that researchers may increasingly need to provide a “breadcrumb trail,” through preregistration of hypotheses and transparent workflows to demonstrate the authenticity of their work.
Platforms such as PubPeer and Retraction Watch also play a role, enabling researchers to flag concerns and share evidence about suspect papers after publication. These flags then prompt journal retractions and investigations, making it a critical component in the fight against paper mill activity.
A call for tighter regulation
Aside from technology, Byrne would like to see tighter regulation for the commercial publishing industry, akin to something like the ISO 9001 quality management standards that have been widely adopted across industries like manufacturing, engineering, and healthcare.
“We need a regulatory framework that rewards journals that do the right thing and that care about publishing quality,” she said. “And we need to disincentivize the current commercial drive towards publishing anything for money.”
Byrne believes that funders and researchers should be demanding these standards. “They pay for the research, the journal subscriptions, the article processing charges, and give their research for free,” she said. “They don’t ask anything in return, in terms of quality standards, and that’s unacceptable.”

Elected Trustee
COPE
Marie Soulière, PhD, an elected trustee of COPE and chair of the COPE Paper mill Working Group, acknowledged that “a standard such as ISO 9001 could help with process consistency, documentation, and accountability.” But she said, “it would not be a direct solution to publication fraud or paper mills” and “would need to sit alongside integrity-specific controls, not replace them.”
How publishers are responding
Publishers are increasingly shifting from isolated responses to coordinated action. Initiatives like the STM Integrity Hub and United2Act are driving cross-industry collaboration and shared detection approaches.
Soulière said that several recommendations from the COPE/STM 2022 “have been put into practice, particularly around cross-publisher collaboration, shared screening approaches, and investment in integrity infrastructure.”
A central strategy, highlighted in a publication from the United2Act working groups, uses the “Swiss Cheese Model,” a move toward layered screening that combines tools such as plagiarism screening, image forensics, citation analysis, and author verification. “Each safeguard has limitations, but multiple checks together make it harder for fraudulent papers to pass through,” said Soulière.

Associate Director
Sage
Publishers are also strengthening internal processes. As Adya Misra, PhD, associate director of research integrity at Sage, described: “Our research integrity team acts centrally to support editors and internal journal teams with both prevention of suspicious or problematic research and the correction of the scholarly record … in line with COPE guidance.”
A spokesperson for Taylor & Francis highlighted their work on external collaborations designed to address the root causes of integrity issues. They are partnering with the National Science Library at the Chinese Academy of Sciences to develop research integrity and publishing ethics training programs, designed to ensure that students and researchers at all levels receive adequate support and to help them avoid exploitation by unethical third-party services such as paper mills.
AI changes the game
Even as safeguards improve, artificial intelligence (AI) is moving the goalposts. Many current detection strategies were developed to target structured forms of fraud; template-driven papers, recycled images, and repeated patterns across manuscripts. But these signals are beginning to disappear. “Our system worked because the paper mills would have a template, but now with AI, there is no template,” said Barnett. “It’s going to absolutely change everything.”
Barnett and his colleague Matt Spick, PhD, a lecturer in health and biomedical data analytics at the University of Surrey, recently demonstrated this by generating a complete scientific paper in just under 30 minutes using publicly available data and the OpenAI platform PRISM.
“All we did was give it the dataset and said write a paper for an Elsevier journal,” Barnett explained. “If an honors student had given me this paper, I would have been pretty pleased.”

Paradoxically, AI could also be bad news for paper mills as people realize they can create the papers themselves at little to no cost.
Reasons for cautious optimism
With AI adding to the challenges that publishers and researchers already face, the future could appear bleak. Barnett recalled an analogy describing the AI problem as an oil spill in a digital ocean, “We don’t know how deep it is, can’t get to the bottom of it, and it’s very difficult to clean up.”
Even removing a single problematic paper can require significant time and effort, while thousands more remain undetected. But Byrne remains positive that the work being done can have an impact.
“I’m actually really positive, because I think the biggest thing is awareness,” she said, noting that when she gives talks, she asks if the audience has heard of paper mills. “In 2023, that might have been five percent of people, and yet by 2025 it had increased to 30%–50%,” she said.
Soulière added that increased collaboration and transparency within scholarly publishing is another positive takeaway.
“Publishers, editors, institutions, and other stakeholders are no longer treating these issues as isolated problems,” she said. “They are investing in stronger screening systems, clearer policies, and better cross-sector coordination. In that sense, this moment is also driving progress and innovation.
“While the risks are serious, the response from the sector shows that trust can be reinforced, and that the system is becoming better equipped to detect problems earlier and protect the scholarly record more effectively,” Soulière concluded.
Laura Cowen is a freelance medical journalist who has been covering healthcare news for over 10 years. Her main specialties are oncology and diabetes, but she has written about subjects ranging from cardiology to ophthalmology and is particularly interested in infectious diseases and public health.
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