Paper Mills and the Fight Against Scientific Fraud

Scientific publishing is facing a growing challenge from fabricated research produced by industrial-scale paper mills. But researchers and publishers are fighting back through technology and collaboration to protect the integrity of the scientific record.

Scientific publishing is based on the trust that the data are real and that peer review ensures quality. But that trust is being eroded by commercial enterprises known as paper mills—coordinated commercial operations that sell authorship slots in fraudulent or manipulated manuscripts, then submit those manuscripts to journals.

Unlike traditional misconduct, these are not lone researchers cutting corners but businesses producing research at scale, often tailored to meet the demands of specific fields, journals, and career incentives.

A recent analysis of almost 19,000 online adverts for paper mills revealed authorship slots being sold for between $36 to $5,600 depending on the position of the slot, highlighting how commercialized the market is. The average for a first author position was $1,030 and, although the study did not examine which adverts resulted in published papers, another investigation traced approximately 1,000 authorship adverts to more than 400 published papers.

The magnitude of the problem is difficult to estimate. A 2022 report by the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and the International Association of Scientific, Technical & Medical Publishers (STM) found that the percentage of suspect papers submitted to journals was around two percent overall but increased sharply to as high as 46% in journals targeted by paper mills.

The pressure to publish

For honest researchers, it might be difficult to understand why paper mills even exist. At the heart of the issue is what Adrian Barnett, PhD, a professor in the Australian Centre for Health Services and Innovation at Queensland University of Technology, described as the “publish or perish” phenomenon.

“If I could do one simple thing tomorrow, I would ban all the university league tables,” said Barnett. “They’re just encouraging corruption.” Ranking systems that prioritize publication volume can push researchers toward quantity over quality, making paper mills an easy way to meet expectations.

Furthermore, publication is often not just a measure of success but a requirement for career progression. “For the clients, it’s believed that they need publications that they can’t achieve through their own efforts, either because they don’t have the time, the facilities, the training, or the money to do research and yet, for whatever reason, their employers expect them to,” explained Jennifer Byrne, PhD, a professor of molecular oncology and lead of the Publication and Research Integrity in Medical Research group at the University of Sydney.

Byrne has published extensively about paper mills and publication integrity; she got into the field accidentally when she came across some papers about a gene that her team discovered many years earlier. “In 2014–2015, we realized that five or six different groups suddenly published very similar papers about this gene in different journals,” she said. “And I just thought, that doesn’t really make a lot of sense.”

Upon investigation, Byrne found that the papers, and a further 48 similar publications, showed features consistent with mass production. She has since proposed that human gene research in general is highly vulnerable to paper mills. “You can hide fake research quite effectively in experimental fields, because it’s very difficult and time-consuming to reproduce experimental studies,” she said.

Why paper mills matter

Aside from the obvious fraud, paper mills are problematic for several reasons. Byrne describes them as “a billion-dollar problem” with few resources devoted to tackling it. And although she and others have advocated for scaled investments, progress so far has been slow.

The publishing system can also reinforce the problem. Paper mills are profit-driven, but journals also benefit through article processing charges and citations, creating what Byrne describes as a “circle” in which “everyone gets what they want.”

The consequences of paper mill papers being published can influence real research. The papers are cited, reused, and built upon, wasting both time and money for all involved.

More broadly, the erosion of trust can drive researchers away from entire fields. In Byrne’s case, she stopped doing preclinical cancer research. “I left because there were a lot of papers that I couldn’t trust. When you get to the point where you can’t trust most of the recent literature, it’s very difficult to continue,” she said.

There are also more sinister risks. Barnett recalled reports of paper mills exploiting their clients, including instances of potential blackmail. “If you’ve been a regular customer and then you suddenly stop, they might try and squeeze more money,” he said. “They’ve got absolutely no scruples.”

Despite these impacts, deterrents are limited. “There are almost none,” said Byrne.

Retractions are often slow, meaning damage is done before action is taken, and retraction rates are far below where they should be.

In an April 2026 report to a U.S. Congress hearing on the state of scientific publishing, Kate Travis, managing editor of Retraction Watch, showed that the retraction rate was around 0.2% in 2025, up from 0.02% in 2016. Yet, the report states that Retraction Watch “are confident that the rate […] should be about two percent—10 times what it is today.”

How to tackle the problem

Concerns about problematic papers are often raised by individual researchers or so-called science sleuths on platforms such as PubPeer. Although they have become skilled at spotting telltale signs of a paper mill, like manipulated images, distinct layouts, author affiliations that might not match the topic of the paper, unusual patterns of coauthors, and fake peer reviews, it is difficult for the untrained eye to detect problems from a single paper.

This is why there have been calls for increased awareness. “Awareness is always the first step,” said Byrne, who is working with The Lancet–World Conferences on Research Integrity Foundation commission to address critical issues related to research integrity.

Efforts to extend awareness are also being coordinated through initiatives such as United2Act, which brings together stakeholders from research institutions, publishers, sleuths, and universities to develop shared guidance and educational resources.

But even with greater coordination, human detection has limits. As paper mills scale, automated tools are becoming essential.

Earlier this year, Barnett, Byrne, and colleagues published a paper in the BMJ showing that their large language model (LLM) could flag papers suspected of being from paper mills by analyzing sentence-level patterns. The model identified 9.9% of more than 2.6 million cancer research papers for further review. Many of the papers were linked to regions with strong publication incentives, including China.

However, Barnett emphasized that the model “is not a 100% proof, it’s a quick and simple flag that should encourage reviewers to look at those papers and look for other signs of paper mill activity.”

Other paper mill detection technologies are also available. Platforms such as Clear Skies, which is used by the STM Integrity Hub, use machine learning to detect patterns across large bodies of literature, while image-forensics tools and cross-publisher data sharing help identify duplicated figures and submissions.

Alongside these tools, Barnett suggested that researchers may increasingly need to provide a “breadcrumb trail,” through preregistration of hypotheses and transparent workflows to demonstrate the authenticity of their work.

Platforms such as PubPeer and Retraction Watch also play a role, enabling researchers to flag concerns and share evidence about suspect papers after publication. These flags then prompt journal retractions and investigations, making it a critical component in the fight against paper mill activity.

A call for tighter regulation

Aside from technology, Byrne would like to see tighter regulation for the commercial publishing industry, akin to something like the ISO 9001 quality management standards that have been widely adopted across industries like manufacturing, engineering, and healthcare.

“We need a regulatory framework that rewards journals that do the right thing and that care about publishing quality,” she said. “And we need to disincentivize the current commercial drive towards publishing anything for money.”

Byrne believes that funders and researchers should be demanding these standards. “They pay for the research, the journal subscriptions, the article processing charges, and give their research for free,” she said. “They don’t ask anything in return, in terms of quality standards, and that’s unacceptable.”

Marie Soulière, PhD, an elected trustee of COPE and chair of the COPE Paper mill Working Group, acknowledged that “a standard such as ISO 9001 could help with process consistency, documentation, and accountability.” But she said, “it would not be a direct solution to publication fraud or paper mills” and “would need to sit alongside integrity-specific controls, not replace them.”

How publishers are responding

Publishers are increasingly shifting from isolated responses to coordinated action. Initiatives like the STM Integrity Hub and United2Act are driving cross-industry collaboration and shared detection approaches.

Soulière said that several recommendations from the COPE/STM 2022 “have been put into practice, particularly around cross-publisher collaboration, shared screening approaches, and investment in integrity infrastructure.”

A central strategy, highlighted in a publication from the United2Act working groups, uses the “Swiss Cheese Model,” a move toward layered screening that combines tools such as plagiarism screening, image forensics, citation analysis, and author verification. “Each safeguard has limitations, but multiple checks together make it harder for fraudulent papers to pass through,” said Soulière.

Publishers are also strengthening internal processes. As Adya Misra, PhD, associate director of research integrity at Sage, described: “Our research integrity team acts centrally to support editors and internal journal teams with both prevention of suspicious or problematic research and the correction of the scholarly record … in line with COPE guidance.”

A spokesperson for Taylor & Francis highlighted their work on external collaborations designed to address the root causes of integrity issues. They are partnering with the National Science Library at the Chinese Academy of Sciences to develop research integrity and publishing ethics training programs, designed to ensure that students and researchers at all levels receive adequate support and to help them avoid exploitation by unethical third-party services such as paper mills.

AI changes the game

Even as safeguards improve, artificial intelligence (AI) is moving the goalposts. Many current detection strategies were developed to target structured forms of fraud; template-driven papers, recycled images, and repeated patterns across manuscripts. But these signals are beginning to disappear. “Our system worked because the paper mills would have a template, but now with AI, there is no template,” said Barnett. “It’s going to absolutely change everything.”

Barnett and his colleague Matt Spick, PhD, a lecturer in health and biomedical data analytics at the University of Surrey, recently demonstrated this by generating a complete scientific paper in just under 30 minutes using publicly available data and the OpenAI platform PRISM.

“All we did was give it the dataset and said write a paper for an Elsevier journal,” Barnett explained. “If an honors student had given me this paper, I would have been pretty pleased.”

Paradoxically, AI could also be bad news for paper mills as people realize they can create the papers themselves at little to no cost.

Reasons for cautious optimism

With AI adding to the challenges that publishers and researchers already face, the future could appear bleak. Barnett recalled an analogy describing the AI problem as an oil spill in a digital ocean, “We don’t know how deep it is, can’t get to the bottom of it, and it’s very difficult to clean up.”

Even removing a single problematic paper can require significant time and effort, while thousands more remain undetected. But Byrne remains positive that the work being done can have an impact.

“I’m actually really positive, because I think the biggest thing is awareness,” she said, noting that when she gives talks, she asks if the audience has heard of paper mills. “In 2023, that might have been five percent of people, and yet by 2025 it had increased to 30%–50%,” she said.

Soulière added that increased collaboration and transparency within scholarly publishing is another positive takeaway.

“Publishers, editors, institutions, and other stakeholders are no longer treating these issues as isolated problems,” she said. “They are investing in stronger screening systems, clearer policies, and better cross-sector coordination. In that sense, this moment is also driving progress and innovation.

“While the risks are serious, the response from the sector shows that trust can be reinforced, and that the system is becoming better equipped to detect problems earlier and protect the scholarly record more effectively,” Soulière concluded.

 

Laura Cowen is a freelance medical journalist who has been covering healthcare news for over 10 years. Her main specialties are oncology and diabetes, but she has written about subjects ranging from cardiology to ophthalmology and is particularly interested in infectious diseases and public health.

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